Bison Battle

What is Bison Battle?

Ahead of the government’s Autumn Budget in October, Entain CEO Stella David cautioned that doubling the current MGD rate to 40% could result in widespread closures of betting shops and significant job losses, while potentially reducing tax revenues for the government.

A potential MGD rise was first reported in the The Financial Times, as Chancellor John Healey is allegedly looking to raise the tax, on the recommendation of the Social Market Foundation, which proposed the increase in a recent report.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham had already announced the government’s intention to scrap “aim to permit” for betting shops as well as insisting that AGCs will now need planning permission to function.

What is Bison Battle?

Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.

The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.

As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.

About Bison Battle

Nearly a third of respondents told Fullstory that increased event contract breadth could compel them to consistently choose a prediction market over a sportsbook.

Sportsbook operators have an inherent advantage over prediction markets in that the former can offer significantly larger sign-up and retention bonuses and gaming companies are leaning into those expenditures this football season.

Promotional spending is nice and has proven to be an effective customer acquisition tool, but both sportsbooks and prediction markets would do well to emphasize bespoke experiences for clients because they’re looking for customization.