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Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.
Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.
Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
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“We feel that people are always interested in gambling and that we are the party who should offer that in a safe way. [Holland Casino] has been careful to maintain that, but of course our costs rose very quickly, so we restructured at our head office. We have also been looking at innovations in offerings, which we are currently also testing, including a further development of the Next Zone. We’ve also introduced the double zero in roulette, which we didn’t have previously in the Netherlands,” the CEO says.
“Obviously, in the gaming industry we don’t have a price tag on our product where you can just change the RTP (return-to-player) and your problem is solved, it doesn’t work like that. Especially not if you take responsible gaming seriously.”
Speaking of which, in Holland the casinos must have two databases, one for online players, one for land-based, and keep them very separate – except for when it comes to responsible gambling (RG). A casino can’t use its online offering to promote the land-based side to players, and vice-versa – but the data can all be used together to make sure customers are safe from harm whenever they play with the same operator, online or otherwise.
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Entain’s removal from the FTSE 100 is a telling sign of what has happened to gambling stocks across both Europe and the US in recent years. The company’s shares have fallen sharply over the past year, even as its first-half results showed continued growth in several important markets.
In the six months to June, Entain’s online net gaming revenue rose 7% in constant currency. Revenue in Britain and Ireland increased 13%, while the company maintained its full-year guidance for online net gaming revenue growth of 5% to 7%. So why is its stock price still so under pressure?
One answer is that the industry is no longer being valued primarily on the promise of endless growth. The market instead wants to see profit, cash generation and manageable regulation maintained across all facets of a listed business. Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, says the longer-term decline in gambling stocks runs much deeper than just changes to earnings forecasts.
